The Burden and Impact of Cough in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: An Analysis of the Prospective Observational PROFILE Study.

Rationale: Cough is a commonly reported symptom in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) that negatively impacts patient-reported quality of life (QoL). However, both the burden of cough at diagnosis and the behavior of cough over time have not been systematically described in patients with IPF. Objectives: By utilizing data prospectively collected as part of the PROFILE study, we sought to assess cough burden and the impact that this has on QoL within a cohort of patients with newly diagnosed IPF. We also reexamined the previously described relationship between cough and mortality and the association of cough with the MUC5B promoter polymorphism. Methods: The PROFILE study is a multicenter, prospective, observational, longitudinal cohort study of incident IPF. Scores on the Leicester Cough Questionnaire (LCQ) were recorded at baseline in 632 subjects and then repeated 6 monthly in a subset (n = 216) of the cohort. Results: The median LCQ score at diagnosis was 16.1 (interquartile range, 6.5). LCQ scores remained stable over the subsequent year in the majority of patients. There was a weak association between LCQ score and baseline lung function, with worse cough-related QoL associated with more severe physiological impairment. Cough scores were not associated with subsequent mortality after correcting for baseline lung function. Furthermore, there was no relationship between LCQ score and MUC5B promoter polymorphism status. Conclusions: The burden of cough in IPF is high. Although cough is weakly associated with disease severity at baseline, cough-specific QoL, as measured by the LCQ, confers no prognostic value. Cough-specific QoL burden remains relatively stable over time and does not associate with MUC5B promoter polymorphism.

Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Is Associated with Common Genetic Variants and Limited Rare Variants.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a rare, irreversible, and progressive disease of the lungs. Common genetic variants, in addition to nongenetic factors, have been consistently associated with IPF. Rare variants identified by candidate gene, family-based, and exome studies have also been reported to associate with IPF. However, the extent to which rare variants, genome-wide, may contribute to the risk of IPF remains unknown. Objectives: We used whole-genome sequencing to investigate the role of rare variants, genome-wide, on IPF risk. Methods: As part of the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine Program, we sequenced 2,180 cases of IPF. Association testing focused on the aggregated effect of rare variants (minor allele frequency ⩽0.01) within genes or regions. We also identified individual rare variants that are influential within genes and estimated the heritability of IPF on the basis of rare and common variants. Measurements and Main Results: Rare variants in both TERT and RTEL1 were significantly associated with IPF. A single rare variant in each of the TERT and RTEL1 genes was found to consistently influence the aggregated test statistics. There was no significant evidence of association with other previously reported rare variants. The SNP heritability of IPF was estimated to be 32% (SE = 3%). Conclusions: Rare variants within the TERT and RTEL1 genes and well-established common variants have the largest contribution to IPF risk overall. Efforts in risk profiling or the development of therapies for IPF that focus on TERT, RTEL1, common variants, and environmental risk factors are likely to have the largest impact on this complex disease.

Longitudinal lung function and gas transfer in individuals with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a genome-wide association study.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is an incurable lung disease characterised by progressive scarring leading to alveolar stiffness, reduced lung capacity, and impeded gas transfer. We aimed to identify genetic variants associated with declining lung capacity or declining gas transfer after diagnosis of IPF. METHODS: We did a genome-wide meta-analysis of longitudinal measures of forced vital capacity (FVC) and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) in individuals diagnosed with IPF. Individuals were recruited to three studies between June, 1996, and August, 2017, from across centres in the US, UK, and Spain. Suggestively significant variants were investigated further in an additional independent study (CleanUP-IPF). All four studies diagnosed cases following American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society guidelines. Variants were defined as significantly associated if they had a meta-analysis p<5 × 10-8 when meta-analysing across all discovery and follow-up studies, had consistent direction of effects across all four studies, and were nominally significant (p<0·05) in each study. FINDINGS: 1329 individuals with a total of 5216 measures were included in the FVC analysis. 975 individuals with a total of 3361 measures were included in the DLCO analysis. For the discovery genome-wide analyses, 7 611 174 genetic variants were included in the FVC analysis and 7 536 843 in the DLCO analysis. One variant (rs115982800) located in an antisense RNA gene for protein kinase N2 (PKN2) showed a genome-wide significant association with FVC decline (-140 mL/year per risk allele [95% CI -180 to -100]; p=9·14 × 10-12). INTERPRETATION: Our analysis identifies a genetic variant associated with disease progression, which might highlight a new biological mechanism for IPF. We found that PKN2, a Rho and Rac effector protein, is the most likely gene of interest from this analysis. PKN2 inhibitors are currently in development and signify a potential novel therapeutic approach for IPF. FUNDING: Action for Pulmonary Fibrosis, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, and National Institutes of Health National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Forced vital capacity trajectories in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a secondary analysis of a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive fibrotic lung disease with a variable clinical trajectory. Decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) is the main indicator of progression; however, missingness prevents long-term analysis of patterns in lung function. We aimed to identify distinct clusters of lung function trajectory among patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis using machine learning techniques. METHODS: We did a secondary analysis of longitudinal data on FVC collected from a cohort of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis from the PROFILE study; a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study. We evaluated the imputation performance of conventional and machine learning techniques to impute missing data and then analysed the fully imputed dataset by unsupervised clustering using self-organising maps. We compared anthropometric features, genomic associations, serum biomarkers, and clinical outcomes between clusters. We also performed a replication of the analysis on data from a cohort of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis from an independent dataset, obtained from the Chicago Consortium. FINDINGS: 415 (71%) of 581 participants recruited into the PROFILE study were eligible for further analysis. An unsupervised machine learning algorithm had the lowest imputation error among tested methods, and self-organising maps identified four distinct clusters (1-4), which was confirmed by sensitivity analysis. Cluster 1 comprised 140 (34%) participants and was associated with a disease trajectory showing a linear decline in FVC over 3 years. Cluster 2 comprised 100 (24%) participants and was associated with a trajectory showing an initial improvement in FVC before subsequently decreasing. Cluster 3 comprised 113 (27%) participants and was associated with a trajectory showing an initial decline in FVC before subsequent stabilisation. Cluster 4 comprised 62 (15%) participants and was associated with a trajectory showing stable lung function. Median survival was shortest in cluster 1 (2·87 years [IQR 2·29-3·40]) and cluster 3 (2·23 years [1·75-3·84]), followed by cluster 2 (4·74 years [3·96-5·73]), and was longest in cluster 4 (5·56 years [5·18-6·62]). Baseline FEV1 to FVC ratio and concentrations of the biomarker SP-D were significantly higher in clusters 1 and 3. Similar lung function clusters with some shared anthropometric features were identified in the replication cohort. INTERPRETATION: Using a data-driven unsupervised approach, we identified four clusters of lung function trajectory with distinct clinical and biochemical features. Enriching or stratifying longitudinal spirometric data into clusters might optimise evaluation of intervention efficacy during clinical trials and patient management. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research, Medical Research Council, and GlaxoSmithKline.

A lung targeted miR-29 mimic as a therapy for pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: MicroRNAs are non-coding RNAs that negatively regulate gene networks. Previously, we reported that systemically delivered miR-29 mimic MRG-201 reduced fibrosis in animal models, supporting the consideration of miR-29-based therapies for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). METHODS: We generated MRG-229, a next-generation miR-29 mimic based on MRG-201 with improved chemical stability due to additional sugar modifications and conjugation with the internalization moiety BiPPB (PDGFbetaR-specific bicyclic peptide)1. We investigated the anti-fibrotic efficacy of MRG-229 on TGF-ß1 treated human lung fibroblasts (NHLFs), human precision cut lung slices (hPCLS), and in vivo bleomycin studies; toxicology was assessed in two animal models, rats, and non-human primates. Finally, we examined miR-29b levels in a cohort of 46 and 213 patients with IPF diagnosis recruited from Yale and Nottingham Universities (Profile Cohort), respectively. FINDINGS: The peptide-conjugated MRG-229 mimic decreased expression of pro-fibrotic genes and reduced collagen production in each model. In bleomycin-treated mice, the peptide-conjugated MRG-229 mimic downregulated profibrotic gene programs at doses more than ten-fold lower than the original compound. In rats and non-human primates, the peptide-conjugated MRG-229 mimic was well tolerated at clinically relevant doses with no adverse findings observed. In human peripheral blood from IPF patients decreased miR-29 concentrations were associated with increased mortality in two cohorts potentially identified as a target population for treatment. INTERPRETATION: Collectively, our results provide support for the development of the peptide-conjugated MRG-229 mimic as a potential therapy in humans with IPF. FUNDING: This work was supported by NIH NHLBI grants UH3HL123886, R01HL127349, R01HL141852, U01HL145567.

CYFRA 21-1 Predicts Progression in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Prospective Longitudinal Analysis of the PROFILE Cohort.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and inevitably fatal condition for which there are a lack of effective biomarkers to guide therapeutic decision making. Objectives: To determine the relationship between serum concentrations of the cytokeratin fragment CYFRA 21-1 and disease progression and mortality in individuals with IPF enrolled in the Prospective Observation of Fibrosis in the Lung Clinical Endpoints (PROFILE) study. Methods: CYFRA 21-1 was identified by immunohistochemistry in samples of human lung obtained at surgery. Concentrations of CYFRA 21-1 were measured using an ELISA-based assay in serum samples collected at baseline, 1 month, and 3 months from 491 individuals with an incident diagnosis of IPF who were enrolled in the PROFILE study and from 100 control subjects at baseline. Study subjects were followed for a minimum of 3 years after their first blood draw. Measurements and Main Results: CYFRA 21-1 localizes to hyperplastic epithelium in IPF lung tissue. Peripheral CYFRA 21-1 concentrations were significantly higher in subjects with IPF than in healthy control subjects in both the discovery (n = 132) (control: 0.96 ± 0.81 ng/ml; vs. IPF: 2.34 ± 2.15 ng/ml; P < 0.0001) and validation (n = 359) (control: 2.21 ± 1.54 ng/ml; and IPF: 4.13 ± 2.77 ng/ml; P < 0.0001) cohorts. Baseline concentrations of CYFRA 21-1 were able to distinguish individuals at risk of 12-month disease progression (C-statistic, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.79; P < 0.0001) and were predictive of overall mortality (hazard ratio, 1.12 [95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.19] per 1 ng/ml increase in CYFRA 21-1; P = 0.0001). Furthermore, 3-month change in concentrations of CYFRA 21-1 separately predicted 12-month and overall survival in both the discovery and validation cohorts. Conclusions: CYFRA 21-1, a marker of epithelial damage and turnover, has the potential to be an important prognostic and therapeutic biomarker in individuals with IPF.

Genome-Wide Association Study of Susceptibility to Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a complex lung disease characterized by scarring of the lung that is believed to result from an atypical response to injury of the epithelium. Genome-wide association studies have reported signals of association implicating multiple pathways including host defense, telomere maintenance, signaling, and cell-cell adhesion.Objectives: To improve our understanding of factors that increase IPF susceptibility by identifying previously unreported genetic associations.Methods: We conducted genome-wide analyses across three independent studies and meta-analyzed these results to generate the largest genome-wide association study of IPF to date (2,668 IPF cases and 8,591 controls). We performed replication in two independent studies (1,456 IPF cases and 11,874 controls) and functional analyses (including statistical fine-mapping, investigations into gene expression, and testing for enrichment of IPF susceptibility signals in regulatory regions) to determine putatively causal genes. Polygenic risk scores were used to assess the collective effect of variants not reported as associated with IPF.Measurements and Main Results: We identified and replicated three new genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10-8) signals of association with IPF susceptibility (associated with altered gene expression of KIF15, MAD1L1, and DEPTOR) and confirmed associations at 11 previously reported loci. Polygenic risk score analyses showed that the combined effect of many thousands of as yet unreported IPF susceptibility variants contribute to IPF susceptibility.Conclusions: The observation that decreased DEPTOR expression associates with increased susceptibility to IPF supports recent studies demonstrating the importance of mTOR signaling in lung fibrosis. New signals of association implicating KIF15 and MAD1L1 suggest a possible role of mitotic spindle-assembly genes in IPF susceptibility.

Biomarkers of collagen synthesis predict progression in the PROFILE idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis cohort.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is characterised by excessive extracellular matrix (ECM) deposition and remodelling. Measuring this activity provides an opportunity to develop tools capable of identifying individuals at-risk of progression. Longitudinal change in markers of ECM synthesis was assessed in 145 newly-diagnosed individuals with IPF.Serum levels of collagen synthesis neoepitopes, PRO-C3 and PRO-C6 (collagen type 3 and 6), were elevated in IPF compared with controls at baseline, and progressive disease versus stable disease during follow up, (PRO-C3 p < 0.001; PRO-C6 p = 0.029). Assessment of rate of change in neoepitope levels from baseline to 3 months (defined as 'slope to month 3': HIGH slope, slope > 0 vs. LOW slope, slope < =0) demonstrated no relationship with mortality for these markers (PRO-C3 (HR 1.62, p = 0.080); PINP (HR 0.76, p = 0.309); PRO-C6 (HR 1.14, p = 0.628)). As previously reported, rising concentrations of collagen degradation markers C1M, C3M, C6M and CRPM were associated with an increased risk of overall mortality (HR = 1.84, CI 1.03-3.27, p = 0.038, HR = 2.44, CI 1.39-4.31, p = 0.002; HR = 2.19, CI 1.25-3.82, p = 0.006; HR = 2.13 CI 1.21-3.75, p = 0.009 respectively).Elevated levels of PRO-C3 and PRO-C6 associate with IPF disease progression. Collagen synthesis and degradation biomarkers have the potential to enhance clinical trials in IPF and may inform prognostic assessment and therapeutic decision making in the clinic.

The Its Not JUST Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis Study (INJUSTIS): description of the protocol for a multicentre prospective observational cohort study identifying biomarkers of progressive fibrotic lung disease.

Introduction: The Its Not JUST Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis Study (INJUSTIS) is a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study. The aims of this study are to identify genetic, serum and other biomarkers that may identify specific molecular mechanisms, reflecting disease endotypes that are shared among patients with progressive pulmonary fibrosis regardless of aetiology. Furthermore, it is anticipated that these biomarkers will help predict fibrotic activity that may identify patterns of disease behaviour with greater accuracy than current clinical phenotyping. Methods and analysis: 200 participants with the multidisciplinary team confirmed fibrotic lung disease (50 each of rheumatoid-interstitial lung disease (ILD), asbestosis, chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis and unclassifiable ILD) and 50 idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis participants, recruited as positive controls, will be followed up for 2 years. Participants will have blood samples, lung function tests, quality of life questionnaires and a subgroup will be offered bronchoscopy. Participants will also be given the option of undertaking blinded home handheld spirometry for the first 3 months of the study. The primary end point will be identification of a biomarker that predicts disease progression, defined as 10% relative change in forced vital capacity (FVC) or death at 12 months. Ethics and dissemination: The trial has received ethical approval from the National Research Ethics Committee Nottingham (18/EM/0139). All participants must provide written informed consent. The trial will be overseen by the INJUSTIS steering group that will include a patient representative, and an independent chairperson. The results from this study will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and disseminated at regional and national conferences. Trial registration number: NCT03670576.

Resequencing Study Confirms That Host Defense and Cell Senescence Gene Variants Contribute to the Risk of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Rationale: Several common and rare genetic variants have been associated with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, a progressive fibrotic condition that is localized to the lung. Objectives: To develop an integrated understanding of the rare and common variants located in multiple loci that have been reported to contribute to the risk of disease. Methods: We performed deep targeted resequencing (3.69 Mb of DNA) in cases (n = 3,624) and control subjects (n = 4,442) across genes and regions previously associated with disease. We tested for associations between disease and 1) individual common variants via logistic regression and 2) groups of rare variants via sequence kernel association tests. Measurements and Main Results: Statistically significant common variant association signals occurred in all 10 of the regions chosen based on genome-wide association studies. The strongest risk variant is the MUC5B promoter variant rs35705950, with an odds ratio of 5.45 (95% confidence interval, 4.91-6.06) for one copy of the risk allele and 18.68 (95% confidence interval, 13.34-26.17) for two copies of the risk allele (P = 9.60 × 10-295). In addition to identifying for the first time that rare variation in FAM13A is associated with disease, we confirmed the role of rare variation in the TERT and RTEL1 gene regions in the risk of IPF, and found that the FAM13A and TERT regions have independent common and rare variant signals. Conclusions: A limited number of common and rare variants contribute to the risk of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in each of the resequencing regions, and these genetic variants focus on biological mechanisms of host defense and cell senescence.

Patient-reported distress can aid clinical decision-making in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: analysis of the PROFILE cohort.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive and fatal interstitial lung disease. We aimed to determine if patient response to a palliative assessment survey could predict disease progression or death.We undertook a cross-sectional study in a UK clinical cohort of incident cases. Rasch-based methodology provided a disease distress value from an abridged 11-item model of the original 45-item survey. Distress values were compared with measures of lung function. Disease progression or mortality alone was predicted at 12 months from survey completion, with risk of death assessed at 3, 6 and 12 months.Disease distress values were negatively correlated with lung function (r=-0.275 for the percentage predicted diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide). Expected survey scores computed from distress values could distinguish disease progression (n=8.8, p=0.004) and death (n=10.2, p=0.002) from no disease progression (n=6.9). Actual survey scores predicted disease progression and death with an area under the curve of 0.60 and 0.64, respectively. Each point increment in actual score increased risk of 12-month mortality by 10%; almost 43% of people scoring above 18 did not survive beyond 105 days.We define a short questionnaire that can score disease distress and predict prognosis, thus assisting clinical decision-making in progressive fibrosis.

An epithelial biomarker signature for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: an analysis from the multicentre PROFILE cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive, fatal disorder with a variable disease trajectory. The aim of this study was to assess potential biomarkers to predict outcomes for people with IPF. METHODS: PROFILE is a large prospective longitudinal cohort of treatment-naive patients with IPF. We adopted a two-stage discovery and validation design using patients from the PROFILE cohort. For the discovery analysis, we examined 106 patients and 50 age and sex matched healthy controls from Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust and the Royal Brompton Hospital. We did an unbiased, multiplex immunoassay assessment of 123 biomarkers. We further investigated promising novel markers by immunohistochemical assessment of IPF lung tissue. In the validation analysis, we examined samples from 206 people with IPF from among the remaining 212 patients recruited to PROFILE Central England. We used the samples to attempt to replicate the biomarkers identified from the discovery analysis by use of independent immunoassays for each biomarker. We investigated the predictive power of the selected biomarkers to identify individuals with IPF who were at risk of progression or death. The PROFILE studies are registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers NCT01134822 (PROFILE Central England) and NCT01110694 (PROFILE Royal Brompton Hospital). FINDINGS: In the discovery analysis, we identified four serum biomarkers (surfactant protein D, matrix metalloproteinase 7, CA19-9, and CA-125) that were suitable for replication. Histological assessment of CA19-9 and CA-125 suggested that these proteins were markers of epithelial damage. Replication analysis showed that baseline values of surfactant protein D (46·6 ng/mL vs 34·6 ng/mL, p=0·0018) and CA19-9 (53·7 U/mL vs 22·2 U/mL; p<0·0001) were significantly higher in patients with progressive disease than in patients with stable disease, and rising concentrations of CA-125 over 3 months were associated with increased risk of mortality (HR 2·542, 95% CI 1·493-4·328, p=0·00059). INTERPRETATION: We have identified serum proteins secreted from metaplastic epithelium that can be used to predict disease progression and death in IPF. FUNDING: GlaxoSmithKline R&D and the UK Medical Research Council.

Genetic variants associated with susceptibility to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in people of European ancestry: a genome-wide association study.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic progressive lung disease with high mortality, uncertain cause, and few treatment options. Studies have identified a significant genetic risk associated with the development of IPF; however, mechanisms by which genetic risk factors promote IPF remain unclear. We aimed to identify genetic variants associated with IPF susceptibility and provide mechanistic insight using gene and protein expression analyses. METHODS: We used a two-stage approach: a genome-wide association study in patients with IPF of European ancestry recruited from nine different centres in the UK and controls selected from UK Biobank (stage 1) matched for age, sex, and smoking status; and a follow-up of associated genetic variants in independent datasets of patients with IPF and controls from two independent US samples from the Chicago consortium and the Colorado consortium (stage 2). We investigated the effect of novel signals on gene expression in large transcriptomic and genomic data resources, and examined expression using lung tissue samples from patients with IPF and controls. FINDINGS: 602 patients with IPF and 3366 controls were selected for stage 1. For stage 2, 2158 patients with IPF and 5195 controls were selected. We identified a novel genome-wide significant signal of association with IPF susceptibility near A-kinase anchoring protein 13 (AKAP13; rs62025270, odds ratio [OR] 1·27 [95% CI 1·18-1·37], p=1·32 × 10-9) and confirmed previously reported signals, including in mucin 5B (MUC5B; rs35705950, OR 2·89 [2·56-3·26], p=1·12 × 10-66) and desmoplakin (DSP; rs2076295, OR 1·44 [1·35-1·54], p=7·81 × 10-28). For rs62025270, the allele A associated with increased susceptibility to IPF was also associated with increased expression of AKAP13 mRNA in lung tissue from patients who had lung resection procedures (n=1111). We showed that AKAP13 is expressed in the alveolar epithelium and lymphoid follicles from patients with IPF, and AKAP13 mRNA expression was 1·42-times higher in lung tissue from patients with IPF (n=46) than that in lung tissue from controls (n=51). INTERPRETATION: AKAP13 is a Rho guanine nucleotide exchange factor regulating activation of RhoA, which is known to be involved in profibrotic signalling pathways. The identification of AKAP13 as a susceptibility gene for IPF increases the prospect of successfully targeting RhoA pathway inhibitors in patients with IPF. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the US National Institutes of Health, Agencia Canaria de Investigación, Innovación y Sociedad de la Información, Spain, UK National Institute for Health Research, and the British Lung Foundation.

Longitudinal change in collagen degradation biomarkers in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: an analysis from the prospective, multicentre PROFILE study.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, a progressive and inevitably fatal disorder, has a highly variable clinical course. Biomarkers that reflect disease activity are urgently needed to inform patient management and for use as biomarkers of therapeutic response (theragnostic biomarkers) in clinical trials. We aimed to determine whether dynamic change in markers of extracellular matrix (ECM) turnover predicts progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis as determined by change in forced vital capacity and death. METHODS: In this ongoing prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study (PROFILE), participants with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis or idiopathic non-specific interstitial pneumonia diagnosed within the preceding 6 months were recruited from two coordinating centres (Nottingham, UK, and, Royal Brompton Hospital, London, UK). Serum samples were prospectively collected at baseline, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months and were analysed for a panel of novel matrix metalloprotease (MMP)-degraded ECM proteins, by ELISA-based, neoepitope assay. 11 neoepitopes were tested in a discovery cohort of 55 patients to identify biomarkers of sufficient rigour for more detailed analyses. Eight were then further assessed in a validation cohort of 134 patients with 50 age-matched and sex-matched controls. Changes in biomarker concentrations were related to subsequent progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (defined as death or decline in forced vital capacity >10% at 12 months after study enrolment) using a repeated measures model. The PROFILE study is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers NCT01134822 and NCT01110694. FINDINGS: Of 214 eligible participants recruited between Sept 1, 2010, and March 31, 2012, 189 had a confirmed diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and were included in subsequent analyses. In the discovery cohort, mean concentrations of seven neoepitopes (BGM, p=0·009; C1M, p=0·009; C3M, p=0·046; C6M, p=0·032; CRPM, p=0·008; ELM2, p=0·02; and VICM, p=0·0007) differed significantly between healthy controls and participants with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Baseline concentrations of six neoepitopes (C1M, p=0·012; C3A, p=0·012; C3M, p=0·0005; C6M, p=0·0003; CRPM, p=0·021; and VICM, p=0·046) were significantly higher in patients with progressive idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (n=32) than in those with stable disease (n=23). In the validation cohort, mean concentrations of C1M (p=0·001), C3M (p=0·044), C6M (p=0·003), and CRPM (p=0·024) at baseline were higher in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis than in healthy controls. When assessed longitudinally, concentrations of six neoepitopes (BGM, C1M, C3A, C3M, C6M, and CRPM) were significantly higher in patients with progressive idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (n=71) than in patients with stable idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (n=60) by 6 months. Baseline concentrations of two neoepitopes were associated with increased mortality (C1M: HR 1·62 [95% CI 1·14-2·31], p=0·0069; C3A: 1·91 [1·06-3·46], p=0·032). The rate of change between baseline and 3 months of six neoepitopes (BGM: HR 1·084 [95% CI 1·03-1·14], p=0·0019; C1M: 1·01 [1·003-1·017], p=0·0039; C3M: 1·106 [1·045-1·170], p=0·0005; C5M: 1·003 [1·001-1·005], p=0·0011; C6M: 1·042 [1·007-1·078], p=0·017; and CRPM: 1·38 [1·16-1·63], p=0·0002) was strongly predictive of overall survival, and the increased risk was proportional to the magnitude of change in neoepitope concentrations. The strongest association with 3-month rate of biomarker change was recorded for CRPM; greater than 0 ng/mL per month conferred a HR of 2·16 (95% CI 1·15-4·07), whereas a rate greater than 1 ng/mL per month resulted in an HR 4·08 (2·14-7·8), and a rate greater than 1·7 ng/mL per month was associated with an HR 6·61 (2·74-15·94). INTERPRETATION: Concentrations of protein fragments generated by MMP activity are increased in the serum of individuals with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis compared with healthy controls. Increased neoepitope concentrations were associated with disease progression, and the rate of this increase predicted survival. Serial measurements of neoepitopes have potential to be used as theragnostic biomarkers in clinical trials and to guide management of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. FUNDING: GlaxoSmithKline R&D and the Medical Research Council.